G5: Nigerians await decision

G5: Nigerians await decision

 

Nigerians and indeed most members of the political class would be expecting answers when leaders of the G5 reenter the country.

They are expected to arrive from Europe on Friday, but what is not clear is whether the G5 Governors will spill the beans on their conversation or leave Nigerians in suspence about the presidential candidate that they have agreed to back when they come face to face with airport correspondents.

The G5 Governors include Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State and Governor Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State.

According to a Government House itinerary, Governor Nyesom Wike on his return will be flagging off fresh projects. Including the Igbo-Eleka Road.

Already, the media is awash with all kinds of theories. Some reports suggest the governors are split over Peter Obi and BolaTinubu.  There are reports that say crisis has engulfed the G5.

Here in Nigeria,  the Atiku camp perturbed by the possible prospect of being dumped has issued a warning saying the G5 might become politically irrelevant if they withdraw their support for the PDP presidential flagbearer.

Meanwhile, hope is rising in the APC. Most APC strategists believe Bola Tinubu is most likely to benefit from a coalition with the G5.

Among Nigerians, the countdown has begun. Only approximately 50 days are left before voting takes place.

This ecplains why most people have been waiting anxiously for the outcome of talks among Governors of the Integrity Group otherwise known as the G5.

Fight of the titans:

On the table where discussions have been ongoing; in the field where politicians are angling for maximum advantage; a titanic battle is going on.

It is a fight between  Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP, who continues to top national opinion polls and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC who has steadily maintained second place in the eyes of pollsters as the race enters its final lap.

The G5 has  indicated it will back a Southern candidate in the forthcoming elections after the effort to get Atiku to ditch Iyorchia Ayu hit the rock.

Outside the country where leaders of the Integrity Group have been meeting, there are still no indication that the talks have been conclusive.

Will it be Tinubu or Obi?

No one is absolutely sure who the beneficiary of the support of the G5 will be.

Days have come and gone, different positions have been canvassed in course of the ongoing conversations on the strength and weaknesses of major Southern candidates.

While insiders are of the view that the governors have registered progress through painstaking dialogue at the G5 meeting, there is no hint of  a decision that may be binding.

Two major presidential candidates from the Southern part of the country are strongly in the race. They are Peter Obi of Labour Party and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress.

Poll results which are becoming part of the political landscape are showing a strong and persistent preference by Nigerians for the two southern candidates who are in front of the pack.

Interestingly, looking at the mood of the nation, it is a four-way race in which Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP,  and Rabi’u Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP, are apparently disadvantaged.

The outcome of national polls conducted by Anap which covers the six geopolitical zones – North East, North West, North Central, South West, South East and South South – indicate that Nigerians are not as enthusiastic about Atiku and Kwankwaso.

The latest assessment conducted by ThisDay shows that  Obi has strong presence in the North Central, but is nearly absent  or completely absent on ground in other parts of Northern Nigeria.

On the contrary, Tinubu who is standing elections on the platform of the APC has a strong footing in most parts of the country even though he may not be in the lead in parts of the country.

This means that Tinubu might be able to meet the 25% requirement in at least two-thirds of the country stipulated by the constitution.

Possible collapse of Northern strongholds:

Somehow, there is a new tendency, based on the outcome of recent opinion polls, that is gradually surfacing. Strongholds that Northern candisates appear to see as pillars of strength are no longer exclusive presetves.

Whereas about 38% of voters in the South West an undecided at this time, the momentum in the North, despite attempts to drum up support for the idea of another Northerner in Aso Rock, appears to be on the decline.

Within what used to be known as the ‘Monolithic North’, not many who are looking at the bigger picture, especially at the need to maintain unity within the country’s component parts, agree on the need for a Northern president at this time.

This group of rational minded Nigerians within Northern Nigeria agree the North has enjoyed its turn under President Muhammadu Buhari and so should leave the centre stage for the South.

They insist that such a gesture by the North would pave way for national stability, national unity and national cohesion.

Men like Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State belong to a group of Northern elites who are canvassing actively for a power shift.

These Northerners do not embrace Atiku’s notion of ‘One Nigeria’, coined obviously from a slogan adopted during Nigeria’s bloody civil war.

That slogan adopted by Atiku conjures imageries of the massacre of innocent and defenseless Nigerians, analysts say. Some even think Atiku should not remind Nigerians who bore the brunt of the war of such a past.

Atiku’s uninspiring campaign:

Atiku hasn’t been able, from our findings, to gain sufficient traction since the PDP was hit by crisis.

He has inadvertently allowed a significant and influential segment which is fighting for the reflection of national character in all things to drift away from his campaign effort.

Most political observers say Atiku’s inability to resolve the conflict brewing within his party may be his greatest undoing.

Tough as Atiku might appear to be, close associates of the former customs officer say he is deeply worried about the moves being made by the G5.

Atiku supporters are praying for a split among the G5. They claim such a split would reduce the impact of their stand against the PDP presidential candidate.

G5 and Nigeria’s political future:

If all goes according to plan, the G5 may come up with a common position that may define the outcome of the forthcoming election and decide the fate of the PDP.

From all indications, five governors prior to the 2015 elections deserted the PDP.  The consequences arising from the interplay of power cost the PDP.

Five governors hurt by current abuses within the party are refusing to leave the party. But they are however not flowing with the presidential candidate of the party.

As the integrity governors return to the country most Nigerians hope that whatever the decision is, it would be a new year gift for the entire nation.

“The G5 Governors may leave Europe on or before Thursday and arrive here on Friday”, a well-placed source revealed.

Prodded by our reporter, the source disclosed  “The G5 is taking the issue of their support of any of the Southern candidates seriously. So much would depend on the choice they will make.

“It is something they need to be careful about; something that they need to be pragmatic about; and something they must think through.”